The Yield Curve: The Recession Signal Everyone Watches

About this video

When short-term rates rise above long-term ones, recession talk starts. Why this one line has predicted so much — and when it lies. In this video: • The yield curve in plain language • Why inversion historically precedes recessions • The mechanism: expectations, policy, bank lending • False alarms and what to watch alongside it #economics #yieldcurve #recession #markets

From the video

Signal broken?
Signal broken?
Normal curve
Normal curve
Inversion
Inversion
Bank model
Bank model
Wide spread
Wide spread
Margin squeeze
Margin squeeze
Credit freeze
Credit freeze
Expectations
Expectations
Curve flips
Curve flips
Self-fulfilling
Self-fulfilling
1998 exception
1998 exception
Timing unclear
Timing unclear

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The Yield Curve: The Recession Signal Everyone Watches