Why Soft Landings Are So Rare
About this video
What is a soft landing in economics, and how rare is it? In this video, we explain how policymakers try to cool inflation without triggering a deep recession, review the historical scorecard since 1965, and explore why soft landings are so difficult to achieve. You'll learn about the only clear soft landing in U.S. history, the signals economists watch, and whether we might be on track for a second one. Chapters: 00:00 The Holy Grail 00:15 Only One Soft Landing 00:27 Textbook Soft Landing 00:41 1990-91 Recession: Slow Cuts 00:57 The Perfect Storm 01:12 Yield Curve Inversion 01:28 Sahm Rule Triggered 01:43 Maybe This Time Is Different 01:59 Core PCE Inflation Falls 02:15 GDP Growth Positive 02:30 Too Early to Call 02:46 Purchasing Power Improves 03:02 Potential Rate Cuts 03:18 The Bottom Line 03:33 The Fed's Dilemma 03:49 Sticky Services 04:05 1994 Success 04:21 Global Perspective 04:37 Current Conditions 04:53 Policy Missteps 05:09 Housing Market 05:25 Why Lags Matter 05:41 The 1994 Blueprint 05:57 Global Echoes 06:13 Consumer Expectations Sources & further reading: ā¢ Federal Reserve History ā https://www.federalreservehistory.org ā¢ Bureau of Economic Analysis ā https://www.bea.gov ā¢ Bureau of Labor Statistics ā https://www.bls.gov ā¢ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) ā https://fred.stlouisfed.org ā¢ Claudia Sahm's Sahm Rule ā https://www.sahmrule.com ā¢ IMF World Economic Outlook ā https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO
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